I confess to being a Bayesian.

There are many more possible explanations of both the driver reversing on the motorway and the cyclists crossing the barriers — I am sure you can think of a few.

But it is a mistake to assume that each of them has a similar likelihood. My prior is that, in both cases, shortsightedness is by far the most likely explanation for the observed behaviour. The evidence for the alternatives is too weak to alter my priors.

Accidental behavioural economist in search of wisdom. Uses insights from (behavioural) economics in organization development. On Twitter as @koenfucius