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Naïve and inadequate

We have a tendency to believe not only that the reality is exactly how we see it, but also that just a little information is often enough to draw accurate conclusions or make good decisions

Koen Smets
7 min readNov 15, 2024

Have you ever disagreed with anyone, perhaps about how inflation works, or about how a certain expression should be used? (I thought so.) Some of these disagreements relate preferences: we may find coffee a much better beverage than tea, while our best friend believes the opposite is true. But when a crucial referee decision at a local football derby divides us and a colleague who supports the opposing team, we will firmly believe our viewpoint is the one that is objectively true. Only people who are biased, misinformed or incompetent could believe otherwise. This phenomenon, known as naïve realism, is a major reason for persistent conflict, because it hinders any attempt to take a different perspective. Recent research has identified a complementary bias, that may both contribute to naïve realism, and to the endurance of conflicts: the illusion of information adequacy, the mistaken belief that we have sufficient information to understand a situation and make sound decisions, even if we lack crucial knowledge.

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Koen Smets
Koen Smets

Written by Koen Smets

Accidental behavioural economist in search of wisdom using insights from (behavioural) economics in organization development. On Twitter/Bluesky as @koenfucius

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