A painting of a plane and a wad of cash
(featured image: the author via DALL-E)

The value of not flying

Why might people decline an offer of up to $10,000 just to keep their feet on the ground?

Koen Smets
7 min readJul 15, 2022

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What would you be prepared to do to receive $10,000 in cash, on the spot? Before your thoughts go to things of questionable legality or morality, hold your horses — nothing like that is needed. No, these days, it seems, you can earn that kind of money for not taking a flight. And if this makes you raise your eyebrows, what do you think of the fact that such an amount is, apparently, still insufficient for most people to take the offer? Isn’t that odd?

Overbooking is not a problem that airlines have been experiencing over the past few years, but it seems to be on the rise again. So it turned out to be in the run up to the Fourth of July weekend in the US (when numerous people traditionally take the opportunity of Independence Day to go and visit relatives), especially as capacity, post-COVID, is still constrained. And just like in the olden days, airlines are accepting more bookings for flights than there are seats, under the (usually correct) assumption that at least some of the prospective travellers will not turn up, so they will still have a full plane. But they must guess how many no-shows there will be, and sometimes they overestimate that number.

The airline’s dilemma: getting out of

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Koen Smets

Accidental behavioural economist in search of wisdom. Uses insights from (behavioural) economics in organization development. On Twitter as @koenfucius