Member-only story
Where’s your tipping point?
Almost all decisions we face have a tipping point — the point where we would change our mind. Good decision-making means working out where it is.
This is a time of tough decisions. Many governments face rapidly rising COVID-19 infection rates, and are desperate to bring the outbreak back under control. A lockdown, with only shops considered of vital importance are allowed to open, and the default for everyone is to stay at home — even if only for a limited time, to act as a so-called circuit breaker — is perhaps the most effective way of stemming the alarming increase in COVID-19 cases.
But even three or four weeks of lockdown would come with considerable costs. It would further damage economic sectors already very badly hurt by the pandemic so far, such as retail, hospitality and entertainment. It would also have adverse public health consequences (notably for mental health) and impair social interaction with friends and family (including with vulnerable people).
In many countries the debate between proponents and opponents of lockdowns is deeply polarized. And we can see similar profound divisions around questions like whether or not schools and universities should be kept open or the effectiveness of curfews, not to mention the issue of facemasks.
